Three NBA locks for Monday, Nov. 14 – OutKick

By | November 14, 2022

We go together with all of the street groups on our Monday betting slip for the NBA. Monday Evening Soccer is the principle attraction, however contemplate including the next NBA bets to your sports activities betting account.

Phoenix Suns (8-4) at Miami Warmth (6-7)

Miami is on the intense aspect once they host Phoenix on the FTX Enviornment for a warning at 7:30 p.m. ET, because the Warmth are more healthy and have a bonus over weak point to attract fouls. Furthermore the smart assist Miami.

Phoenix’s damage report is extra regarding

Chris Paul is listed as “uncertain” on the damage report and has missed Phoenix’s final two video games. Suns PF Cameron Johnson and SG Landry Shamet have already been dominated out.

Johnson has a internet on/off score of +19.1 (nRTG), Shamet has an on/off nRTG of +5.8, and CP3 has an on/off nRTG of +8.0, in line with CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG) , which removes useless time from its stat monitoring. .

SG Warmth Tyler Herro, and reigning sixth man of the yr, is “uncertain” to play on Monday. However, Herro has an on/off nRTG of -5.4, in line with CTG.

Miami has much more depth within the backcourt. Phoenix might be with out its common flooring and will definitely be with no high quality contributor in Johnson.

Along with that…

Warmth is best for working refs

Miami has a lot better free throw (FT) charges than Phoenix. The Warmth are seventh in offensive FT price and eighth in defensive FT price, in line with CTG. The Suns are 18th in offensive FT price and twenty sixth in defensive FT price.

Miami Heat SF Jimmy Butler in action against the Toronto Raptors at FTX Arena in Miami.
Miami Warmth SF Jimmy Butler in motion towards the Toronto Raptors at FTX Enviornment in Miami. (Megan Briggs/Getty Photographs)

Warmth All-Star Jimmy Butler is likely one of the finest within the NBA to entry the charity strip. Butler’s aggressiveness ought to work in Miami’s favor on this recreation.

Talking of what…

Miami has higher wings

With all due respect to Suns All-Protection SF Mikal Bridges, which I like, it could possibly’t test Butler. Butler is the perfect participant on the courtroom, not Phoenix All-Star Devin Booker. It has a better PER, Win Shares by 48 and field +/-.

Miami has loads of size and athleticism to throw defensively towards Booker. Warmth All-Defensive large Bam Adebayo can defend all positions, Butler is an All-Protection man himself, and F Caleb Martin is within the Warmth’s beginning 5 totally on protection.

‘Recreation Execs (Warmth) vs. Joe’s (Suns)’

As of this writing, there may be more cash on the Warmth at DraftKings Sportbook however extra bets have been positioned on the Suns, per VSIN.

Moreover, Pinnacle Sportsbook (Pinny) is the the sharpest store on the earth as a result of it reserves the most important bets and the Miami unfold has probably the most vigor at Pinny.

NBA Greatest Guess #1: Warmth -1.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, all the way down to -2.5

Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, Nov. 14 at 3:30 a.m. ET.
Miami Warmth vs. Phoenix Suns odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, Nov. 14 at 3:30 a.m. ET.

Toronto Raptors (7-7) at Detroit Pistons (3-11)

The Raptors are lacking their two most essential gamers once they go to the Pistons at Little Caesars Enviornment on Monday for a recreation at 7 p.m. ET.

Detroit is more healthy

Definitely, Pistons PG and second prime scorer Cade Cunningham is sidelined with an damage, however the Raptors have a lot greater damage considerations.

Detroit returned two rotational gamers in back-to-back video games. F-pistons Marvin Bagley III made his season debut on the Knicks on Friday then SG Alec Burk the next night time towards the Celtics.

Toronto is lacking its prime two males’s scorers and assists Pascal Siakam and Fred Van Vleet. Each have already been dominated out for Monday’s recreation.

Toronto Raptors PG Fred VanVleet high-fives SF Pascal Siakam at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto.
Toronto Raptors PG Fred VanVleet high-fives SF Pascal Siakam at Scotiabank Enviornment in Toronto. (Vaughn Ridley/NBAE through Getty Photographs)

Siakam has an nRTG on/off of +14.8, in line with CTG, and has missed the final 5 video games. The Raptors are 2-3 general and 1-4 ATS (ATS) in these contests.

When Siakam and VanVleet are offside, Toronto is down 5.9 factors per 100 possessions, which ranks within the twelfth percentile of all 5-man rosters, per CTG.

The Raptors’ 42.5 p.c efficient subject purpose with Siakam and VanVleet off the ground ranks within the ZERO percentile of all 5-man rosters.

Skilled bettors additionally pounce on a stoned Raptors crew…

“Pointed” assist pistons

At 4 a.m. ET Monday morning, it was a Benefits (Detroit) towards Joe (Toronto) Recreation at Draftkings. By VSIN, virtually 70% of the cash is on the Pistons and over 60% of the bets are on the Raptors.

Basically, sq. bettors see Detroit’s rubbish file plus Cunningham’s absence as a possibility to wipe out the Pistons. However, the professionals know that losses to Siakam and VanVleet make Detroit helpful there.

Plus, the Pistons have one and have coated six straight video games towards the Raptors over the previous two seasons. Detroit has a +11 margin of victory and a +17.3 unfold differential in these video games.

Let’s observe the cash with…

NBA Greatest Guess #2: Pistons +5 (-110) in DraftKings Sportsbook and “sprinkle” on Detroit ML

Detroit Pistons vs. Toronto Raptors odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, Nov. 14 at 4:30 a.m. ET.
Detroit Pistons vs. Toronto Raptors odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, Nov. 14 at 4:30 a.m. ET.

Atlanta Hawks (8-5) at Milwaukee Bucks (10-2)

The general public is more likely to wager the Beneath in Hawks-Bucks on a Monday within the NBA common season. Nevertheless, Atlanta is 2-9 Over/Beneath (O/U) in its final 11 video games towards groups with a profitable file and Milwaukee is 4-8 O/U this yr.

Over the previous two weeks, the Hawks are twenty third in adjusted offensive rankings and the Bucks are twenty fourth, per CTG. However, Milwaukee has the second finest defensive score within the NBA over this span and the perfect this season.

Dig deeper into superior stats and you will really feel higher in regards to the Beneath. These groups are each backside 10 in true taking pictures share and FT/FGA price and backside 10 in defensive rotation price.

Additionally, every crew does a superb job standing up for what the opposite likes to do. Atlanta tries the vast majority of their pictures within the midrange whereas Milwaukee likes to throw three.

Atlanta Hawks big Onyeka Okongwu drives to the basket against the Milwaukee Bucks at State Farm Arena in Atlanta.
Atlanta Hawks large Onyeka Okongwu drives to the basket towards the Milwaukee Bucks at State Farm Enviornment in Atlanta. (Adam Hagy/NBAE through Getty Photographs)

In accordance with CTG, the Hawks are third in defensive 3-point taking pictures share and the Bucks are seventh in defensive subject purpose share to all pictures from half vary.

It will likely be simpler for Atlanta to defend Giannis resulting from Milwaukee accidents. The Bucks will likely be with out SF Kris Middleton (once more) and PG Vacation Jrue Monday.

Lastly, the Beneath is certainly the sharp aspect of the full. More cash is on Beneath at DraftKings whereas extra bets are positioned on Over, per VSIN. Pinny dropped the Hawks-Bucks whole to 223.5 when the consensus was 224 on the time of writing.

NBA Greatest Guess #3: LESS THAN 224 Hawks-Bucks (-110) in DraftKings Sportsbook, all the way down to 222.5

The UNDER at Atlanta Hawks at DraftKings Sportsbook's Milwaukee Bucks starting Monday, November 14 at 5 a.m. ET.
The UNDER at Atlanta Hawks at DraftKings Sportsbook’s Milwaukee Bucks beginning Monday, November 14 at 5 a.m. ET.

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